GMR 467 – 1 July 2016
HIGHLIGHTS
The forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in
2016/17 is up by 10m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,026m, the
second largest ever. Ample rains in recent months have improved
wheat and barley prospects in a number of regions, particularly in
Europe, the CIS and North America, although concerns have arisen
about below average quality. Despite the m/m upgrades, world wheat
and barley harvests are still expected to be smaller y/y (year-on-
year), but this is outweighed by an anticipated recovery in the maize
(corn) crop.
The projection for global consumption in 2016/17 is only fractionally
bigger m/m, at a new record of 2,010m t. Heavy supplies and
attractive prices raise the forecasts for wheat and barley feeding, but
the figure for maize demand in the livestock sector is cut by a broadly
equivalent amount. With little change in projected demand from last
time, but an increase in supply, the forecast for carryover stocks is
boosted by 9m t, to 482m, an expansion of 15m y/y. The trade
projection is 1m t higher than before, at 319m, with an increase for
wheat, but a cut for maize.
Reflecting a further downward adjustment for South America, world
soyabean output in 2015/16 is reduced by 2m t, to 312m, a drop of
3% y/y, but still markedly above average. Projected near-unchanged
from before, 2016/17 global output could recover to 320m t, on area
gains in major producers. However, with consumption anticipated to
expand, aggregate inventories are seen falling by 15%, to 28m t; the
total is lowered by around 1m to reflect a smaller projection for the
US. The forecast for trade is unchanged from May, at a record of
133m t, with the annual increase of 3m tied to China’s growing needs.
The Council’s estimate for rice output in 2015/16 is broadly
unchanged from last month’s report, the y/y decline of 7m t due to
disappointing crop outcomes in Asia. Predictions for 2016/17 are
especially tentative but, assuming improved outturns in that region,
notably in India, output could rise by 3%, to a new peak of 486m t.
However, with total use likely to climb further, stocks could again
tighten. The outlook for trade in calendar 2017 is maintained at about
42m t.
With gains for all the components other than wheat, the IGC Grains
and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 5% m/m.
Figures may not add due to rounding
a) Wheat and coarse grains
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US
d) Argentina, Brazil, US
e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam
See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb
13/14 14/15 15/16
es
.
cas
million tons
26.05 01.07
Production 2008 2046 2001 2015 2026
Trade 310 322 329 318 319
Consumption 1935 2008 1984 2009 2010
Carryover stocks 412 450 467 474 482
year/year change
73 38 17
15
Major exporters
b)
121 144 148 158 160
Production 717 730 736 722 729
Trade 157 153 158 154 156
Consumption
699 717 719
717 720
Carryover stocks
188 201 217
223 226
year/year change
19 12 17
9
Major exporters
b)
54 63 68
70 72
Production
998 1018 969
1003 1003
Trade 122 125 130 129 128
Consumption 950 993 972 1003 1002
Carryover stocks 182 207 204 205 205
year/year change
48 25 -3
1
Major exporters
c)
52 59 52 58 57
Production 284 320 312 320 320
Trade 113 127 130 133 133
Consumption 281 311 317 325 324
Carryover stocks 29 38 33 29 28
year/year change
39-5
-5
Major exporters
d)
10 16 16 14 13
million tons (milled basis)
Production 478 479 473 486 486
Trade
42 42 42
42 42
Consumption
478 481 483
488 488
Carryover stocks
114 112 101
99 99
year/year change
0-2-11
-2
Major exporters
e)
38 32 21
18 18
16/17
pro
.
WORLD ESTIMATES
RICE
SOYABEANS
TOTAL GRAINS
a)
WHEAT
MAIZE (CORN)
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan 2000 = 100
2011-15 range
2016
2015
IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI)
INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL
www.igc.int
Grain
Market
Report
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